162 Modeling oil spill disasters using system dynamics: A case study on the MT Princess Empress oil spill in Oriental Mindoro, Philippines

Mallari C.B.C., San Juan J.L., Chiu S.F., Mayol A.P., Yeo E.S., Bacosa H.P., Sy C. 2024) International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 108, art. no. 104524,. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104524

ABSTRACT: Oil spill events pose potentially irreversible threats to the environment and economy of affected communities, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of their dynamics. This study employs system dynamics (SD) modeling to enhance the current understanding of the complex dynamics associated with oil spill incidents, focusing on the case of the MT Princess Empress oil spill in the Philippines last February 2023. The research integrates quantitative and qualitative data to develop a dynamic simulation model that captures the interdependencies among key variables, such as spill characteristics, environmental factors, response measures, resource allocation, and socio-economic impacts. Model validation was performed by comparing the results of the simulation with historical data from the MT Princess Empress incident. Sensitivity analysis was then conducted to identify critical factors influencing the system’s behavior. Among oil spill size, initial recovery resources, resource support delay, and cash assistance to affected individuals, oil spill size was determined to have the most significant effect on the oil spill system owing to the amplification of negative consequences via reinforcing feedback loops. The research findings thus underscore the effectiveness of preventive measures as the primary strategy for mitigating the consequences of oil spills. Sustainable recovery for communities affected by such incidents also necessitates a shift towards long-term rehabilitation initiatives and proactive community engagement rather than relying on short-term solutions.

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