190 Deep-Sea Accident Risk Posture Assessment Based on a Variable-Weighted Five-Element Connection Number

Jin H., Kang J., Wang Z., Wang J., Cao W. (2024) ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10 (2), art. no. 04024026,  DOI: 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1168

ABSTRACT: The operation risks for deep-sea oil spill recovery are characterized by their multiplicity, fuzziness, and dynamic nature. To more properly and comprehensively assess the operational risks for deep-sea oil spill recovery, an assessment method has been proposed on the basis of combinatorial weighting and multi-element connection number. A full-domain risk assessment index system was built, which consists of four dimensions, namely personnel, equipment, management, and environment, and the combinatorial weighting was performed for the subjective and objective assessment indexes via the rough set improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, respectively. Furthermore, in accordance with the set pair theory, the risk trend assessment model, built upon the multi-element connection number, was developed to comprehensively illustrate the current state of safety control and the developmental trajectory of these risk factors. Finally, a case study of oil spill recovery operations was carried out. Compared with the conventional methods, the proposed method delivers index weights more consistent with the actual situation, due to the applications of combinatorial weighting based on the improved AHP and entropy methods, as well as the multi-element connection number. The analysis showed that this method can deliver a thorough, scientific, and systematic assessment of the status quo. Therefore, the trend of risks and targeted management measures for key risk factors can be obtained.

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